System Dynamics Model of The Canary Islands for Strategic Public Decisions Support

Abstract

The present paper centers on the problems of decision making and decision support related to strategic public decisions. A methodological approach was developed to support decision-making where decision-makers are confronted with unexpected events. The methodology considers the fact that strategic decisions involve a large breadth of variables, qualitative and quantitative; and that they imply distributed and remote interaction between different actors.The approach is based on the building of qualitative models and the application of system dynamics for the development of a simulation model.Variables were identified which affect the sustainable improvement of the quality of life in the Canary Islands. The relationships between the variables are expressed as an influence square Matrix M with dimension n = 53. Each element of M may take values between 0 and 3. If aij =0, changes in variable Vi do not affect Vj. If aij takes a value between 1 and 3, it means that the changes in variable “i” produce changes in “j” proportional to prescribed gain.We used two methods to address the problem: the analysis of the driving- dependent forces and systems dynamics. Key words: qualitative modeling, system dynamics, strategic public decisions