Development of Simulation Model of the Canary Islands for Strategic Decision Making

Abstract

This paper deals with the system dynamics model for decision-making, related to strategic decisions for the development of the Canary Islands. The quantitative model incorporates relevant variables, which affect the sustainable development of the quality of life on the Canary Islands. The relationship between the variables was formalized in the influence matrix. The influence diagram defines the connection between the elements of the matrix. The Following submodels were considered: Population, Tourism market, Agriculture, Environment, and GDP. The program package Powersim was used to build the simulation model. Several strategic scenarios are described and their dynamic response was analyzed. Presently the model is in the validation phase.The initial results are promising according to the positive validation results. Key words: system dynamics, simulation, model, decision support system, sustainable development, tourism