The Explanation Power of Financial Crises Models

Abstract

The paper explores the explanation power of financial crises models. We find that first generation models are inadequate, since they focus only on the role of economic and financial fundamentals. The main innovation of the second generation models lies in identifying the role that the expectations of the market agents may play in precipitating financial crises. We suggest that the actual global financial crisis fit into expanded version of the third generation, which is based on the notion of contagion where the mere occurrence of a crisis in one market increases the likelihood of a similar crisis elsewhere and a fact that financial crisis reveals weaknesses in bank business models, huge weakness in management of financial crises and shortcomings in the process of financial liberalization. The best way to address the biggest threat of huge, systematically significant financial institutions to financial system is by regulating, managing these institutions continuously and determination of clear procedures in a case of a crisis.